Wednesday Wisdom 4/29

Midweek reads full of fun facts to contemplate on interest rates, energy, and the ballroom

Apr 29, 2026

Good afternoon, and Happy Fed Day! In Big News, I discuss today’s rate decision, dissents, and Chair Powell’s final press conference.

Reads Around the Web offers updates on energy supply and demand, while this week’s Substack pieces offer insights into the Fed Chair nominee, reproductive surveillance, and public housing assistance. Stay through the end for comic relief.

Digital image, bathed in SRR Consulting purple, of a desk near corner windows at sunrise. On the desk is an open laptop, newspaper, and coffee mug with the Sara's Fun Facts skyline.

Big News

No rate change. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged, at 3.25-to-3.75 percent, in an eight-to-four majority decision. Governor Miran, who still works for the president, repeated his dovish dissent, preferring to cut the benchmark rate by 0.25 percent. The other three dissents are far more interesting.

Three Federal Reserve District Bank Presidents — Hammack in Cleveland, Logan in Dallas, and Kashkari in Minneapolis — agreed with the rate decision but did not agree to the language in the FOMC statement. These voting members believed the easing bias should be removed from the official statement. During the press conference, Chair Powell elaborated on the topic by noting that the dissenters preferred neutral language to set expectations for the next move being either a cut or a hike.

Leadership change. Today, Trump’s nominee for Chair, Kevin Warsh, was approved by the Senate Banking Committee, clearing the way for a vote in the Senate. He will likely be confirmed by the time Powell’s term ends on May 15.

Powell used his prepared remarks at the press conference to share his decision to remain a Fed Governor after his term ends. The conditional comments by the Department of Justice after dropping its investigation into Powell mean the matter is not yet settled enough for him to step down and enjoy retirement. From his prepared remarks:

“I am encouraged by recent developments and watching the remaining steps in this process carefully. My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve. After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There’s only ever one Chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that Chair.” — Chair Powell, April 29, 2026

Several reporters tried to dig deeper during the Q-and-A, which yielded limited results. Regarding Fed independence from the executive branch, Powell reiterated that he would be “waiting for the investigation to be well and truly over with finality and transparency.” On what it means to be a low-profile governor, Powell shared that he would be a “constructive participant” in FOMC discussions and respectful of new leadership.

So what? Federal funds rate futures show no expectations for a rate cut anytime soon. The market expectation is a flat federal funds rate (or roughly 3.5 percent) through late 2027. Three dissents for more neutral language makes this trajectory quite likely.

SRR Consulting line chart of the evolution of federal funds rate futures

Reads Around the Web

Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster, The Economist, April 21, 2026: “Three factors are pushing the world towards the cliff edge. Oil cargoes available to buy are drying up. Refineries are slashing output of fuel. And demand remains artificially high… Even if Hormuz reopened today, it would take months for Gulf crude output, shipping and refining to resume in full. Saad Rahim of Trafigura, a trader, thinks a cumulative loss of 1.5bn Gulf barrels, or 5% of annual global output, is almost unavoidable.”
UAE Quits OPEC as War Upends Oil Markets and Gulf Tensions Rise, by Sam Dagher et.al., Bloomberg, April 28, 2026: “The UAE believes that the shortages caused by the war will require agility to respond to market demands without being constrained by the collective decision-making process… Top traders estimate that a billion barrels of supply losses are now locked in due to the conflict because of the time it will take to restore barrels, in addition to the volumes that have already been lost. That hole will take years to plug, regardless of what the UAE and other producers do.”
New Gas-Powered Data Centers Could Emit More Greenhouse Gases Than Entire Nations, by Molly Taft, Wired, April 22, 2026: ”Emissions estimates from air permit documents… show that these natural gas projects… built to power data centers to serve some of the US’s most powerful AI companies, including OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and xAI… have the potential to emit more than 129 million tons of greenhouse gases per year… [projects] largely bypass the grid and provide power solely for data centers, a trend known as behind-the-meter power… Even if the actual emissions from these power plants end up being half of the emissions numbers on the permits, they still could create more greenhouse gas emissions than the country of Norway emitted in 2024.”