Wednesday Wisdom 2/11
Midweek reads full of fun facts to contemplate on oddly strong job gains, Schedule F, wages, and feelyat
In Big News, I discuss why the January jobs report is crinkling my brow. The article round-up includes background on immigration policy, Schedule F, and income inequality.
Big News
The BLS released its delayed January 2026 Employment Situation and I am confused.
Total employment for the month increased by 130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate is flat, at 4.3 percent. This seems too strong for any January, and January 2026 in particular. Why?
ADP reported only 22,000 private payroll job gains in January for a three-month moving average 44,300 new jobs per month. With BLS-reported government employment down by 89,000 jobs since October, public employment levels can’t explain the gap between BLS and ADP reporting.
The delayed January JOLTS release showed continued declines in job openings, while the count of U-6 unemployed people per job opening continues to rise. This ratio is now 2.2 unemployed people per job opening as of December 2025.
Health services accounted for nearly all job growth in 2025 and added 123,500 jobs in January, or 95 percent of the total. In the U.S., this sector faces significant funding, staffing, and state-level legal challenges for the foreseeable future.
So what? The BLS 2025 revisions released with this report show 1.0 million fewer jobs than initially reported last year. The largest monthly adjustment was for January 2025, which was initially reported as a 111,000-job gain, then revised to a 48,000-job loss. I expect a similar revision is ahead for January 2026.
Reads Around the Web
Trump admin moves to finalize return of Schedule F, by Erich Wagner, Government Executive, February 5, 2026: “Whistleblower complaints from converted employees would no longer go to the U.S. Office of Special Counsel, instead being referred internally to the employing agency’s general counsel for review... at-will employment in state governments by and large did not improve performance but did correspond with greater instances personnel decisions driven by politics.”
Low-wage workers faced worsening affordability in 2025 as wage growth stalled, by Elise Gould and Joe Fast, Economic Policy Institute, February 5, 2026: “Low-wage workers were able to secure historically fast real wage growth, despite the pandemic- and war-driven inflationary spike in 2021–2022. But in 2025... The Trump administration chaotically imposed historically high tariffs, conducted cruel mass deportations, and implemented massive layoffs among federal agencies that provide key inputs to private-sector economic growth.”
How to Tax a Trillionaire, by Brad Stone, Bloomberg, February 10, 2026: “the [OBBBA] would open a $150 billion hole in California’s health-care sector… To stave off the prospect of rural hospitals shuttering, nurses losing their jobs and millions of residents getting booted off their insurance plans, the group launched a ballot initiative it called the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act… Legislators in Michigan, Rhode Island, Virginia and Washington are all discussing either new surcharges for their highest earners or special taxes on investment assets… the cumulative assets of the 400 richest American families in 1982 amounted to 2% of gross domestic product; today it’s 20%.” (🎁link)
Reads on Substack
There are dozens of reasons to fix unemployment insurance, and this is a big one.
Read the five reports linked here to learn about Trump 2.0 immigrant surveillance, detention, deportation, and who’s profiting from it.
Read about the destruction of our rights.
Three Related Fun Facts Reads:
One Last Thing…
Saturday marks twenty-seven years of a partnership started in art. This skit inspired our most ridiculous and beloved project, Feel-Y-At (2002), the mobile game show.
❤️ Happy Anniversary, Bill! ❤️
Sara’s Fun Facts Schedule
🌆 2/12 SRR Real Estate Quarterly: Q4 2025
🦉 2/18 Wednesday Wisdom: January Inflation
🦉 2/25 Wednesday Wisdom: Q4 2025 GDP
🦉 3/4 Wednesday Wisdom: Housing Update
“The most revolutionary thing one can do is always to proclaim loudly what is happening.” — Rosa Luxemburg
Cheers! - Sara 🦉
There were some categories in the B1 table I find interesting. Construction was up sharply but in the commercial side and for the specialty trades … all data center stuff I think given construction in other sectors. Mfg employment in transportation equipment was also up sharply. A purchasing manager index for the sector did suddenly gain momentum in Q4 so that fits. But PPI for sector has been growing over the last year. Film jobs surged. LAEDC did report growth in LA film shoot days in Q4 with more domestic shoots now that the cost advantage of places like Vancouver eroding with a weaker dollar. Some stories behind these big movers but wouldn’t put much into one good month. Might easily revise away as you note. If it keeps going that’s another story.