There were some categories in the B1 table I find interesting. Construction was up sharply but in the commercial side and for the specialty trades … all data center stuff I think given construction in other sectors. Mfg employment in transportation equipment was also up sharply. A purchasing manager index for the sector did suddenly gain momentum in Q4 so that fits. But PPI for sector has been growing over the last year. Film jobs surged. LAEDC did report growth in LA film shoot days in Q4 with more domestic shoots now that the cost advantage of places like Vancouver eroding with a weaker dollar. Some stories behind these big movers but wouldn’t put much into one good month. Might easily revise away as you note. If it keeps going that’s another story.
Good points, especially on the entertainment industry.
The sharp increase in January health services employment seems far too strong, and excluding this sector, the monthly gain is just 6,500 jobs. So, I can't imagine the final numbers will be over 100k for last month. Also, January construction employment typically declines from the preceding December, which does show up in the unadjusted numbers for building construction and the specialty trades. Perhaps an over-estimation related to data centers, which are part of office construction in government stats (so weird).
One good month isn't a trend, but last month was likely a continuation of recent so-so trends.
There were some categories in the B1 table I find interesting. Construction was up sharply but in the commercial side and for the specialty trades … all data center stuff I think given construction in other sectors. Mfg employment in transportation equipment was also up sharply. A purchasing manager index for the sector did suddenly gain momentum in Q4 so that fits. But PPI for sector has been growing over the last year. Film jobs surged. LAEDC did report growth in LA film shoot days in Q4 with more domestic shoots now that the cost advantage of places like Vancouver eroding with a weaker dollar. Some stories behind these big movers but wouldn’t put much into one good month. Might easily revise away as you note. If it keeps going that’s another story.
Good reminder there Sara that seasonal adjustment are always tricky at the start of the year.
Good points, especially on the entertainment industry.
The sharp increase in January health services employment seems far too strong, and excluding this sector, the monthly gain is just 6,500 jobs. So, I can't imagine the final numbers will be over 100k for last month. Also, January construction employment typically declines from the preceding December, which does show up in the unadjusted numbers for building construction and the specialty trades. Perhaps an over-estimation related to data centers, which are part of office construction in government stats (so weird).
One good month isn't a trend, but last month was likely a continuation of recent so-so trends.
Good reminder there Sara that seasonal adjustment are always tricky at the s
Clearly I’m still learning Substack ha ha ha
No worries, lots of adjustments are tricky at the s 😉