Wednesday Wisdom 6/24
Midweek reads full of fun facts to contemplate on four years, inflation, retail, housing, and AAAAHHHH!
Dear Readers,
Today is a terrible anniversary. Four years ago, 51 percent of the U.S. population lost their federal right to bodily autonomy.
For Americans of my generation and younger, we were born with bodily autonomy. It was granted to us by the same government body who took it away. Three Supreme Court decisions from 1965 through 1973 removed the prohibition on women’s healthcare and women gained legal control of our bodies.
Our rights vanished with the Dobbs decision on June 24, 2022.
States have taken the responsibility for our rights today. I live in Illinois, where human rights are protected, creating a safe haven for medical care. I am from Texas, where autonomy is outlawed, pregnancy deaths are up 56 percent, and a miscarriage can end with arrest.
Four years after I lost the human rights I was born with; I refuse to cede them and am in good company. Further reading about today’s milestone is included among Reads on Substack below.
But first, let’s get into prices and sales.
Big News
The annual pace of U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI) has exceeded the Fed’s 2-percent target since March 2021. The Trump administration’s trade and immigration policies, plus new military conflicts in the Americas and Middle East, have renewed inflationary pressures.
Under former Fed Chair Powell, interest rates were hiked quickly in 2022/2023 to slow inflation from pandemic-era supply chain disruptions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Inflation was nearly tamed in 2024, drifting down to the 2.5 to 3.0 percent range.
Since Trump’s 2025 inauguration, new import taxes, labor force constraints, and energy price shocks are driving inflation higher. Chair Warsh now faces a repeat of inflationary conditions under his predecessor, but with the added complexity of compounding price increases over the past five years.
Inflation is taking a bite out of retail sales. I was surprised at the excited headlines on retail sales last week given that 57 percent of the growth rate was caused by higher prices.
Nominal sales growth mirrors the inflationary strength seen in 2022, when real (adjusted for inflation) retail sales were falling. Real sales growth is stronger than in 2022 but is in range of activity over spring and summer last year.
Volatility in sales growth since 2025 reflects tariff uncertainty. Spikes in sales aligned with anticipated tariffs. Those spikes were followed by sales declines illustrating a pull-forward in consumer demand. As inflation heads the wrong way again, policymakers should watch for signs that consumers are pre-buying ahead of higher inflation expectations.
So what? Despite sounding like a broken record, interest rates will go up. Consumer spending is also under pressure, but it isn’t easy to see without looking beyond luxury goods and wealthy consumers. Most of us have cut back. Groceries are eating into disposable income. Canceled social programs are reducing grocery budgets.
For my real estate colleagues, property values and debt availability will be challenged by higher interest rates. Space demand and rent growth will also be subdued versus prior cycles, especially for consumer-sensitive property sectors.
Related Fun Facts Reads:
Reads Around the Web
US New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall Amid High Mortgage Rates, by Michael Sasso, Bloomberg, June 24, 2026: “Prices have generally softened since 2023… Mortgage rates are hovering near nine-month highs… Weak demand and higher costs for lots and building materials will depress profits for builders throughout the year… 10.3 months of supply at the current sales rate, matching the highest level since 2009.”
More Than 770,000 Children Are No Longer Receiving SNAP Benefits After Trump Changes Federal Food Program, by Nicole Santa Cruz, ProPublica, June 17, 2026: “12 states break down program participation by age, and of the 1,670,011 people who are no longer receiving benefits in those states, 776,134, or 46%, were children… Arizona has seen the nation’s largest percentage decline in SNAP participants… a 55% drop… St. Mary’s Food Bank, the largest in the state [Arizona], has seen a 15% increase in need this year, which translates into 300,000 more visits from people in search of food.”
The U.S. Economy Is Leaving These Companies Behind, by Sydney Ember, The New York Times, June 17, 2026: ”Businesses with fewer than 500 employees account for nearly half of all employment and 55 percent of job creation… Businesses with fewer than 10 workers have broadly been shedding employees… Bankruptcy filings for small businesses also rose last year in a pattern that suggested they were tied to tariff-related economic stress… Unlike tariffs, which have often been absorbed at least in part by wholesalers and suppliers, higher oil and gas prices are pummeling many small businesses directly.”
Reads on Substack
“Buy America was meant to strengthen American supply chains. Applied to housing, it weakens the one supply that matters most: the supply of homes.”
“People are being arrested in order to cover up Trump’s failures.”
“Thanks to abortion bans, we’re experiencing the structural collapse of women’s healthcare in real time.”
One Last Thing…
“I know that’s right.”
Sara’s Fun Facts Schedule
🦉 7/1 Wednesday Wisdom: America’s Birthday 🥳
☀️ 7/8 Sunshine Corner 7/2026 (no Wednesday Wisdom)
🦉 7/15 Wednesday Wisdom: June Jobs and Prices
🦉 7/22 Wednesday Wisdom: Consumer Credit
“The most revolutionary thing one can do is always to proclaim loudly what is happening.” — Rosa Luxemburg
Cheers! - Sara 🦉