Wednesday Wisdom 8/12
Midweek reads full of fun facts to contemplate on jobs, dismal science, housing, and GenX
Hello Readers,
I feel extra melancholy these days. Writing about the economy is more dismal than usual, particularly the labor market.
“Real estate is the economy in a box.” — Ray Torto
I speak about real estate demand often and was recently asked what it would take to improve the labor market. “These are policy choices,” I said, then went down the list of anti-growth nonsense that landed the U.S. economy exactly where it is today. New policy is required to change the direction of the economy. Until then, real estate demand will remain weak.
Big News
I was not surprised by the July 2026 Employment Situation. Demand for workers is falling due to immigration, trade, and fiscal policy choices.
The unemployment rate remains low for the wrong reasons. The ratio of unemployed to employed people in the labor force is a healthy-looking 4.1 percent as both counts declined, but employment fell less than unemployment. The labor force and employment-to-population ratio are also shrinking.
Payroll employment declined by 23,000 jobs over the month of July and grew by just 0.2 percent over the past year.
Local government, restaurants/bars, and retail stores shed over 100,000 jobs combined in July. These unusual summer reduction in local services is severe and likely includes the reversal of World Cup-related hiring. However, with retail job cuts concentrated in discount stores, the underlying trend for consumer spending looks weak.
The two bright spots for monthly job gains are construction and health services. Both sectors added about 22,000 new jobs each and continued to expand on an annual basis. This marks a slowdown in health services job gains, which expanded at twice as fast last year.
Construction activity is concentrated in data centers, boosting specialty trade and nonresidential construction employment. Residential construction employment declined over the month and year.
So what? Job gains will remain limited, as I wrote last week.
Multiple factors are holding back consumer spending, which is the largest share of the U.S. economy. Inflation holds us to tighter budgets and, with only AI investment expanding, there is less opportunity to grow our incomes.
Yikes. I promise some less dismal reads are ahead… birthdays, an essay, and social progress 🤗
Related Fun Facts Reads:
Reads Around the Web
Is Houston’s decades-long growth spurt winding down?, On the record: A Conversation with Bill King, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, July 31, 2026: “[international immigration] is responsible for the great majority of our population growth… we have a dramatic change at the federal level in immigration policy. We are beginning to see the results… We had incredibly high levels of domestic migration. But that has also collapsed over the past three years… Traffic congestion is no longer a top three issue as it had been for 20 years… We’ve had this demographic tailwind for decades. All of a sudden, we’re not going to have it.”
Got cash? With few properties on sale, Chicago homebuyers are having bidding wars, by Abby Miller, Chicago Sun-Times, August 1,2026: “The battle among buyers has been great for home sellers, as properties sell for up to hundreds of thousands of dollars over their asking price. And some buyers — to help sweeten the deal — have been waiving certain contingencies like inspections… Agents said they don’t see the bidding wars ending soon, as the lack of new inventory remains an issue…. those looking to buy should enter the market early and have patience. But searching during the slow seasons, like late fall and winter, can give buyers a leg up.”
ETHS ‘Geometry in Construction’ house moves to its permanent home on Darrow Avenue, by Ruixin Zhang, Evanston Roundtable, August 2, 2026: “the two-story house built through Evanston Township High School’s “Geometry in Construction” course… traveled around a mile from the ETHS parking lot to 2120 Darrow Ave. The project is a collaboration between ETHS, the City of Evanston and Community Partners for Affordable Housing (CPAH). The house marks the 11th built by students from the course… houses built in the program are sold as affordable homes to income-eligible households.”
If a paid subscription isn’t an option, consider a small, one-time tip to support my work and research costs.
Reads on Substack
Happy Birthday! 🥳 “For our birthdays (July 12 and 13), I planned an epic journey to see some Mayan ruins.”
“It’s the soulful, grief-strengthened voice of the compassionate, defiantly mystical hippie daughter.”
“It’s easy to be a free range parent in a place with robust public services, minimal gun violence, carefully enforced traffic laws, and strong environmental protection.”
One Last Thing…
I am honored to have the opportunity to work on CRE® Consulting Corps projects. Last week in Bloomington, IL was my second team project. In 2025, I was with a team in Jacksonville, NC helping to determine how to repurpose a vacant, abandoned hotel into supportive housing.
To learn more about the Consulting Corps, including how your community can apply for support, visit: https://cre.org/initiatives/cre-consulting-corps/
Sara’s Fun Facts Schedule
🌆 8/17 SRR Real Estate Quarterly: Q2 2026
😎 8/19 Sara Takes a Vacay: No Wednesday Wisdom
🦉 8/26 Wednesday Wisdom: July Inflation
🦉 9/2 Wednesday Wisdom: State-level Employment
“Be loud for America.” — Governor JB Pritzker
“The most revolutionary thing one can do is always to proclaim loudly what is happening.” — Rosa Luxemburg
Cheers! - Sara 🦉
Awww thanks for the link!<3