Wednesday Wisdom 7/15
Midweek reads full of fun facts to contemplate about job gains, labor force losses, inflation, and "only good happen"
Hello Readers,
I hope all found time for friends, family, and fun over the holiday. Since the last newsletter, I enjoyed participating in the Evanston 4th of July parade, celebrated my father in-law’s 80th birthday, and published a joint research paper in Sunshine Corner.
I also hit a massive milestone on my so-called ‘fiction project’. I assembled my (not-quite) manuscript this week and it is wild to see 17,500 words compiled from two years of working on this story. The urge to keep going is stronger than ever. 📖
Big News
Payroll employment. June 2026 job gains were modest, at 57,000, as the World Cup bump to leisure and hospitality employment reversed. Hotels, restaurants, and bars reduced employment by 54,600 jobs in June, reversing last month’s gains. Job losses also occurred in the information sector (film, computing, and telecom), mining (oil and gas), and retail.
Job gains in healthcare, professional services, and construction offset these losses. With 46,600 new jobs in June, health services remain the primary driver of U.S. job growth. The expansion in professional services is a welcome improvement, but the concentration of gains in employment services (temps and placement agencies) and management don’t bode well for broader gains ahead. Construction job gains remain connected to AI infrastructure expansion with limited growth in other commercial sectors.
The 4.2 percent June 2026 unemployment rate, down from 4.3 percent in May and up from 4.1 percent a year ago, looks good. However, the unemployment rate is stable for bad reasons. Over 700,000 people left the labor force in June and employment in the household survey declined by half a million people. As a result, the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio continue to fall.
Consumer Prices. A temporary break from high energy prices led to monthly deflation in June, although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains well above the Fed’s target at 3.5 percent year-over-year.
Since June 2025, gasoline prices are up 27 percent, and fuel oil is up 43 percent. The nearly 10 percent decline in both commodities over the month of June aligned with a tentative agreement to pause hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, which is no longer in place. Food prices continued to rise over the month of June, for 3 percent annual inflation since June 2025.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) was 2.6 percent over the year ending in June 2026 with no movement over the month. Lower prices for used vehicles and car insurance were offset by increases in vehicle maintenance/repair and housing.
So what? As real estate folks know, an MOU is not a deal and, when one side has a reputation for stiffing contractors, the odds of closing are minimal. This flimsy attempt at a ceasefire was not going to last and elevated oil and gas prices will persist.
Combined with anti-growth trade and immigration policies, U.S. job growth is constrained. The headline unemployment rate is less useful for gauging labor market tightness given the fall in labor supply. Job creation is weak and, with GDP growth driven entirely by AI investment, unlikely to improve.
Related Fun Facts Reads:
Reads Around the Web
Data Center Pipeline Slows As Canceled Projects Pile Up, by Ethan Rothstein, Bisnow, July 10, 2026: “headwinds have started to have an impact. Following local opposition, Compass Datacenters and Blackstone’s QTS each pulled out of multibillion-dollar projects in Prince William County, Virginia, while the county this week rejected a third project that would have allowed for 42M SF of new data centers. In North Carolina this week, Energy Storage Solutions withdrew plans for a nearly $20B project in Edgecombe County… At least 14 states and dozens of towns, cities and counties are considering bans on digital infrastructure projects.”
More than $140 Billion in Lost Earnings: Abortion Restrictions Continue to Harm Women and Are a Persistent Drag on the Economy, by Melissa Mahoney, PhD and Aashima Sinha, PhD, Institute for Women’s Policy Research, June 16, 2026: ”When accounting for all state-level restrictions on abortion access, combined with the federal funding prohibitions and the absence of federal protections, the annual average economic cost now exceeds $140 billion nationwide… nearly $7 billion more than what IWPR estimated last year… Abortion restrictions threaten both reproductive and economic justice by jeopardizing women’s ability to plan for their families and futures as well as to fully participate in the workforce and build economic security.”
Fortune 500 Land O’Lakes is letting workers choose what days and times they work—and the flex jobs are getting 25% more applicants than full-time gigs, by Emma Burleigh, Fortune, July 12, 2026: ”applications for flex roles outpace traditional roles by roughly 25%, and turnover among new flex workers is 12 points lower… flex work professionals can call the shots on their part-time schedule—whether that means unloading trucks before sunrise or working a sanitation shift after the kids are asleep.”
Consider a small, one-time gift to support my research costs, and cappuccino habit.
Reads on Substack
“Fed officials are even closer to a coin flip than I am.”
“the price of oil to consumers rose substantially more than the actual price of crude”
In four states, using a public restroom can be cause for arrest. Conference planners should take note.
One Last Thing…
“EVERYTHING’S GREAT!” 🌈🌷
Sara’s Fun Facts Schedule
🦉 7/15 Wednesday Wisdom: June Jobs and Prices
🦉 7/22 Wednesday Wisdom: Consumer Credit
🦉 7/29 Wednesday Wisdom: Fed Day
🦉 8/5 Wednesday Wisdom: Q2 GDP Growth
“If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe.” — Carl Sagan
“The most revolutionary thing one can do is always to proclaim loudly what is happening.” — Rosa Luxemburg
Cheers! - Sara 🦉